Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 8.520201e-05 0.000102 0.000120 0.000140 0.000162 0.000186 0.000213
2024-10-27 6.579772e-05 0.000088 0.000113 0.000144 0.000179 0.000218 0.000264
2024-11-03 5.164204e-05 0.000075 0.000104 0.000139 0.000182 0.000230 0.000288
2024-11-10 4.186443e-05 0.000067 0.000098 0.000139 0.000190 0.000248 0.000321
2024-11-17 3.376643e-05 0.000059 0.000092 0.000136 0.000192 0.000258 0.000342
2024-11-24 2.907256e-05 0.000055 0.000090 0.000139 0.000202 0.000279 0.000376
2024-12-01 2.453737e-05 0.000050 0.000087 0.000139 0.000208 0.000292 0.000401
2024-12-08 1.919713e-05 0.000044 0.000081 0.000135 0.000207 0.000298 0.000417
2024-12-15 1.595171e-05 0.000040 0.000077 0.000134 0.000212 0.000310 0.000439
2024-12-22 1.302345e-05 0.000036 0.000074 0.000133 0.000215 0.000320 0.000461
2024-12-29 1.129562e-05 0.000034 0.000073 0.000135 0.000223 0.000336 0.000488
2025-01-05 9.048516e-06 0.000031 0.000070 0.000133 0.000225 0.000345 0.000507
2025-01-12 6.612487e-06 0.000027 0.000065 0.000130 0.000225 0.000352 0.000525
2025-01-19 5.704881e-06 0.000026 0.000066 0.000134 0.000237 0.000374 0.000564
2025-01-26 3.858501e-06 0.000022 0.000060 0.000129 0.000234 0.000378 0.000577
2025-02-02 2.950245e-06 0.000020 0.000059 0.000130 0.000240 0.000392 0.000605
2025-02-09 1.922469e-06 0.000017 0.000055 0.000126 0.000240 0.000398 0.000621
2025-02-16 1.545859e-06 0.000016 0.000055 0.000129 0.000249 0.000417 0.000655
2025-02-23 1.061471e-06 0.000015 0.000053 0.000129 0.000253 0.000429 0.000680
2025-03-02 5.641035e-07 0.000012 0.000049 0.000125 0.000251 0.000433 0.000693
2025-03-09 3.212617e-07 0.000011 0.000047 0.000124 0.000255 0.000443 0.000715
2025-03-16 1.589954e-07 0.000010 0.000045 0.000123 0.000257 0.000453 0.000737
2025-03-23 8.924252e-08 0.000009 0.000045 0.000125 0.000265 0.000469 0.000768